EDITORAL Sobering global health report
At the begining of each year for the
past 16 years the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute has published its
State of the World report, a kind of global health report. It may
be the most important prognosis we have for our future, yet the findings often
receive little attention in the mass media.
Basic measures of planetary health already indicate serious
illness -- often with little evidence that we are earnest about attending to
these illnesses.
Heres what the Worldwatch Institute has to say about the
state of our world as we enter the new millennium:
Biological improverishment of the Earth is accelerating as human
population grows. The share of bird, mammal and fish species that are now in
danger of extinction is in double digits -- 11 percent of all bird species, 25
percent of mammals and 34 percent of fish.
Local ecosystems start to collapse when rising human demands on
them become excessive. Soil erosion has forced Kazakhstan to abandon half its
cropland since 1980. The Philippines and Ivory Coast have lost their once
luxuriant stands of tropical hardwoods and the thriving forest product export
industries that were based on them. In the United States, the rich oyster beds
of the Chesapeake Bay that yielded over 70 million kilograms per year a century
ago produced less than 2 million kilograms in 1998.
And still the pressures build. The projected growth of world
population from 6 billion at present to nearly 9 billion by 2050 will
exacerbate nearly all environmental problems, especially since almost all this
growth will come in the developing world where countries are already struggling
to manage the effects fo their rapidly growing populations.
Another trend affecting the entire workd is rising temperature.
Record-setting temperatures in the 1990s are part of a 20th-century warming
tend. Just over the last three decades (between 1969-71 and 1996-98), global
average tempurature has risen by 0.44 degrees Celsius (0.8 degrees Fahrenheit).
In the 21st century, tempurature is projected to rise even faster.
Rising temperatures are melting glaciers from the Peruvian Andes
to to the Swiss Alps. The two ice shelves on either side of the Antarctic
peninsula are retreating. Over roughly a half-century through 1997, they lost
7,000 square kilometers of ice. But then within a year they lost another 3,000
square kilometers. Scientists attribute the accelerated ice melting to a
regional temperature rise of some 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit)
since 1940.
One of the less visible trends shaping our future is failing water
tables. Although irrigation problems such as waterlogging, salting and sitting
go back several thousand year, aquifer depletion is new, confined largely to
the last half-century, when powerful diesel and electric pumps made it possible
to extract underground water far faster that the natural recharge from rain and
snow. Overpumping of aquifers, which are concentrated in China, India, North
Africa, the Middle East and the United States, exceeds 160 billion tons of
water per year.
Another large-scale trend can be seen in the Amazon, where the
forest is being weakened by logging and by clearing for agriculture. As the
Amazonian forest dwindles, it dries out. As it becomes drier, it becomes more
vulnerable to fire. The vulnerability to fire is also affected by forces
outside the region, such as higher temperatures.
While the world economy is booming, the HIV epidemic is
devastating sub-Saharan Africa, a region of 800 million people. Life expectancy
-- a sentinel indicator of progress -- is falling precipitiously as the virus
spreads. Before the onslaught of AIDS, life expectancy in Zimbabwe was 65
years. In 1998, it was 44 years. By 2010, it is projected to fall to 39
years.
Quickly stabilizing population depends on couples holding the line
at two surviving children -- an achievable goal, the report goes on. Some 34
industrial countries have already reached population stability, and sever
developing countries are approaching it, including Barbados, China, South
Korea, Sri Lanka and Thailand.
Stabilizing climate means replacing fossil fuels with wind, solar
cells and other renewable energy sources. Today the world gets a fifth of its
electricity fro hydropower, but this source is dwarfed by the potential of
wind. Three U.S. states -- North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas -- have enough
harnessable wind energy to supply national electricity needs. China could
double its current generation of electricity using only wind.
The scale and urgency of the challenges facing us in this
century are unprecedented, said Brown. We cannot overestimate the
urgency of stabilizing the relationship between ourselves, now 6 billion in
number, and the natural systems on which we depend. If we continue the
irreversible destruction of these systems, our grandchildren will never forgive
us. As the report notes, Nature has no reset button.
National Catholic Reporter, March 3,
2000
|