The politics of oil
By MARGOT PATTERSON
Call it a marriage of convenience or an unholy alliance, the
relationship between the worlds most powerful democracy and a repressive
monarchy almost as severe as the Taliban could grow even stronger in the wake
of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11. Those attacks are calling new attention
to the costs and benefits of the alliance between the United States and Saudi
Arabia.
At the heart of the alliance is oil -- Saudi Arabias
possession of it, the United States reliance on it and the perceived need
to defend U.S. access to it. Throw into the mix billions of dollars in
lucrative arms sales the United States has made to Saudi Arabia, a
sophisticated regional command center the U.S. military built in Saudi Arabia,
and the American publics enthusiasm for cheap oil, and you have some
understanding of what holds together this otherwise international odd
couple.
The United States buys about 20 percent of its crude oil imports
from Saudi Arabia. The flow of trade operates both ways, with the United States
the kingdoms largest trading partner. It is not, however, the strong
commercial relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia, but the
security ties that have developed between the two since the Gulf War that are
the main irritant for those opposed to the U.S. presence. The U.S. troops on
Saudi soil and U.S. support for a corrupt Saudi regime are among the reasons
Osama bin Laden, the accused mastermind behind the attacks on the World Trade
Center and the Pentagon, cited for his declared holy war against the United
States. For bin Laden, U.S. troops should never have come to Saudi Arabia, home
to Islams two most sacred sites, Mecca and Medina, and the troops
certainly should not have stayed once the war against Saddam Hussein ended.
Even before the Sept. 11 attacks, two previous terrorist incidents in November
1995 and June 1996 took the lives of 24 American servicemen in Saudi
Arabia.
Bin Laden still enjoys considerable popularity with many Saudis,
who share his dissatisfaction with the ruling al-Saud clan and who are not
convinced that bin Laden is responsible for the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
While bin Laden is anathema to the ruling family, many ordinary Saudis admire
him for his defiance of what they deem American arrogance. The New
York Times recently quoted one American-educated professional as saying
The royal family are the only people who dont like Osama bin Laden,
because he is questioning their presence, their future.
Critics of the Saudi regime claim that it squanders its fabulous
wealth on lavish salaries for the 6,000-member royal family, who have
institutionalized bribery as a way of life and collect fat fees for brokering
arms contracts.
Need for U.S. troops
Among American analysts, a range of opinion exists about the need
for U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia.
Energy is one of the highest strategic concerns in the
world. They [the Saudis] have one-fourth of the entire world oil reserves and a
low population. The [U.S.] troops are stationed there to protect the country.
They have a relatively small population compared to their two potential
greatest adversaries, Iran and Iraq. Our military presence is there to help us
defend them, said David E. Long, a retired Foreign Service officer who
served in Saudi Arabia and is the author of The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Longs point of view is shared by many foreign policy experts.
Stephen Zunes, associate professor of politics and chair of the
Peace and Justice Studies Program at the University of San Francisco, suggested
other motivations may be factors in U.S. policy. Zunes argued that the United
States has troops in Saudi Arabia less to protect the kingdom from external
foes than to gain a military foothold in the most important oil-producing
region in the world.
The United States has gone to great length to convince the
Saudis that we need to be there. Even among U.S. allies in the Gulf,
theres enormous skepticism about what actually motivates the ongoing U.S.
presence there, given the increased moderation of Iran and the fact that
Iraqs military power is only a fraction of what it used to be,
Zunes said. The threat to the Gulf Arab monarchies has been greatly
exaggerated by the United States. Indeed, the Saudis have on several occasions
banned the United States from using Saudi territory to launch attacks against
Iraq, even though in theory the United States is trying to protect Saudi Arabia
from Iraq.
The relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia goes
back to the 1940s when American companies built the Saudi oil industry after
the discovery of oil there in the 1930s. Military ties between the two
countries date back to 1945, but have grown more entwined since the Gulf War.
Shortly before the war, U.S. troops were rushed to the country in Operation
Desert Shield to defend it from the threat of Iraqi aggression, though Soviet
satellite photos published by the St. Petersburg (Fla.) Times
later indicated the Iraqis were digging into defensive positions around Kuwait
City, not massing on the border with Saudi Arabia, as the United States
government claimed at the time. Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen and Oman
are among the other countries bordering Saudi Arabia.
After the war, about 5,000 American troops remained in Saudi
Arabia, where they participate in the enforcement of the no-fly zone in
southern Iraq. Ostensibly there to protect Saudi Arabia from Iraq, U.S. troops
are segregated from the Saudi population as much as possible. The restrictions
seem both a response to Saudi concern about the presence of foreign troops in
the country and an effort to limit Western influences in a country that adheres
to a puritanical form of Islam and does not grant basic human rights such as
the right of people to change the government they live under or the right to
free assembly, speech and religion.
Gulf nations have to sell oil
Though the word moderate is often used to describe
Saudi Arabia in American press reports, Zunes points out that there is little
that is moderate about Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia doesnt have a
constitution or a legislature. Its the most conservative, misogynistic,
fundamentalist regime in the Arab world except for the Taliban
itself.
Gregory Gause III, a member of the Middle East Policy Council and
a professor of international relations and Middle East politics at the
University of Vermont, calls the stationing of U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia a
classic case of short-term aims vs. long-term aims. In the end, no matter
who governs these countries in the Gulf, they have to sell us oil. They
cant drink the stuff. Its the only thing they have. In the short
run, any kind of upheaval in these countries can have really important
short-term effects on the markets. Thats a serious consequence. If you
recall, the consequences of the oil price increases in 1973-74 were very
damaging to the economy as a whole. In the end, prices came down, but it took a
while. Its that short-term worry about the impacts of political
disruptions of the oil market that drives us to be there.
Join to that concerns about oil being controlled by Iran or Iraq,
the only two countries in the region with sufficient population, oil and water
resources to threaten American hegemony in the region, and a clearer picture
emerges of U.S. policy in the Persian Gulf.
Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states are the last big oil
patch, and the United States doesnt want that oil to be under the control
of unfriendly regimes. Theres a strategic consideration that ties in with
the Arab-Israeli conflict. We saw the connection between oil and the
Arab-Israeli conflict in 1973, when an Arab-Israeli war led to an oil embargo
and we dont want that to happen again, Gause said.
The greater security ties between the United States and the
Persian Gulf countries and those countries own greater revenue needs
under the pressure of high population growth makes the prospect of a similar
oil embargo much less likely. In any case, many economists say it doesnt
pay for the United States to defend the Persian Gulf.
The Cato Institute, a libertarian public policy group, has opposed
the posting of U.S. troops to Saudi Arabia as it does Americas military
commitment in the Persian Gulf as a whole. Proponents of an activist U.S.
policy usually cite Persian Gulf oil as the primary reason to maintain current
policy, the institute said in a report sent to the 105th Congress. But
the institute said that while unhindered access to Gulf oil is desirable, it is
not sufficiently so to be of vital interest to the U.S. economy. The
United States currently buys only $11 billion worth of Gulf oil per year, yet
U.S. taxpayers spend $40 billion to $50 billion [some analysts estimate as much
as $70 billion] per year to defend the region, the Cato Institute report
stated.
Economists opposed Gulf War
A consensus seems to exist among the national security community
that the United States needs to protect oil, but this is not a consensus shared
by most economists, said Ivan Eland, director of defense policy studies at the
Cato Institute. Before the Gulf War, Eland said economists on both sides of the
political spectrum such as Nobel laureates Milton Friedman, a strong
free-market advocate, and Keynesian economist James Tobin, former adviser to
President Kennedy, spoke out to say that the United States could go to war with
Saddam Hussein if it wanted to, but it shouldnt go for oil.
An econometric study conducted by David Henderson, an economic
adviser to President Reagan, concluded that if Saddam Hussein had taken control
of not only Kuwaits oil supply but had also invaded Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates, the United States gross domestic product would have
dropped only .5 percent because of higher oil prices.
The supposed need to defend oil comes from the trauma in
1973, Eland said. The reason we had gas lines was because the
government didnt let gas prices rise. They had wage and price controls
on. They increased the monetary supply because they thought the higher oil
prices would lead to inflation. But economists now believe that the
stagflation of the 1970s was caused not by oil price increases but by economic
mismanagement, Eland said.
Nonetheless, the oil shortage of 1973 has shaped U.S. policy ever
since, though in Elands opinion with questionable consequences.
What happened in the Gulf War was that we said we were
fighting for oil, but we basically shot ourselves in the foot, said
Eland, who remarked that U.N. sanctions on Iraqi oil sales have taken much more
oil off the world oil market than the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait ever threatened
to.
We got a patriotic feeling from a great tactical victory,
but did we actually win there? Eland asked.
Long before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, the Cato Institute
was on record as calling for the United States to terminate its security
commitments in the Persian Gulf, including its commitment in Saudi Arabia, and
instead to encourage countries in the Persian Gulf to take over their own
defense.
Iraq has about half of its military that it had during the
Gulf War. Saudi Arabia has a gross domestic product that is much greater than
Iraqs, and Saudi Arabia has a much larger military budget than
Iraqs. Even if Iraq is a threat -- and theres a lot of question
whether Iraq could mount an attack --why cant these countries that have
bigger GDP than Iraq defend themselves? We shouldnt be more concerned
about their defense than they are, Eland said.
Sanctions, sanctions, sanctions
If this [terrorist] attack had never happened, the question
would be, do we really need to spend the money to defend oil in Saudi Arabia,
and most economists would say no, Eland said.
Nicholas Berry, a senior analyst with the Center for Defense
Information, said that, given the current counter-terrorism campaign, it is
unlikely that the United States will revise its troop commitment in Saudi
Arabia soon. Such a move would tend to confirm bin Ladens complaint
if we rethought publicly our deployments in Saudi Arabia, he said.
A frequent traveler to the Middle East, Berry called the
deployment of troops in the country that is home to Islams holiest sites
insensitive and inflammatory because of the special
Mecca-Medina relationship.
The Islamic world is a very complex world, Berry said.
The Islamic world feels put-upon. Even though there may be admiration for
American power, they are sensitive to American arrogance.
Partly to address this, Berry said the United States should alter
what he described as its excessive reliance on economic sanctions,
which are imposed on different countries because of terrorism, nuclear
programs, weapons sales or violations of human rights.
Every Islamic country, from Indonesia all the way to
Morocco, is under some form of U.S. sanctions. They may be very mild but they
have them, said Berry. Were often unilateral in our
sanctions, which allows the Japanese, the Italians, the French, whatever to
monopolize trade. And it builds resentment, and that feeds terrorism.
Berry said the economic sanctions against Iraq have been
particularly damaging, helping Saddam Hussein maintain his grip on power while
harming the U.S. image in the Islamic world.
The rationale is to keep Iraq poor so it cannot develop
weapons of mass destruction and thereby threaten Israel and others. The very
presence of weapons of mass destruction would threaten Israel. The rationale
behind his [Husseins] program is not necessarily to use them but to
become a leader of the Arab world against Israel, Berry said.
The U.S. dependence on oil requires the United States to provide
stability for the region, but that does not necessitate a commitment to prop up
foreign regimes, Berry said. And it does not exclude measures to promote human
rights and democracy.
If the debate about U.S. troop deployment in Saudi Arabia seems an
arcane argument among specialists, it all ultimately comes back to everyday
consumption patterns of the American public. Unfortunately, reducing U.S.
demand for oil through a gasoline tax, such as exists in Europe, is politically
unpopular and unfeasible, Long said. While increasing automobile fuel
efficiency just three miles a gallon would save the United States 1-and-a-half
million barrels of oil a day, Long believes Americans are too attached to cheap
oil to consider changes to their lifestyle. People dont want to
give up their SUVs until theyre forced to, he said.
The cost of U.S. policies may be reflected in other ways than the
price of oil, however. Charles Knight, co-director of the project on defense
alternatives at the Commonwealth Institute in Boston, counts among them not
only the Sept. 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon but the
assassination of Bobby Kennedy by Sirhan Sirhan, a Palestinian.
Its been a costly history weve had with the
Middle East, said Knight, speaking of the policies and regimes the United
States has backed. Whether we get a bargain out of that in terms of cheap
oil is beyond my expertise.
Margot Patterson is NCR's senior staff writer. Her
e-mail address is mpatterson@natcath.org
National Catholic Reporter, October 19,
2001
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